Iran will hold presidential elections on June 14, and this will test the country’s political stability and appetite for confrontation with the West and Israel. The incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has generally pursued a confrontational policy towards the US and Israel, but he is not eligible for a third consecutive term, so there will be… [Read more]

Below, we list our latest views on selected global commodities: We expect a consolidation in oil and industrial metal prices over the coming weeks. Further gains from recent lows are likely for commodities such as Brent crude, copper, and aluminium, as underlying macroeconomic fundamentals will remain relatively supportive for now. We retain our bearish medium-term… [Read more]

Acting President Nicolás Maduro’s narrow victory over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski in Venezuela’s April 14 presidential election will heighten social and political tensions in the country. Raw Deal As things stand, it is far from clear that Maduro will be able to serve out his six-year term to 2019. He will inherit a highly… [Read more]

The Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s accelerated easing programme has sent the yen sharply lower, and as logic would suggest, the recent move in JPY/EUR in the euro’s favour matches the move in the ratio of the BoJ’s balance sheet to that of the European Central Bank (ECB). Similar charts can be seen for JPY/US$ and… [Read more]

It is now 10 years since the United States invaded Iraq and overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein, and about 15 months since Washington completed the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq. The Iraq War was a landmark event for the US and the Middle East, and the tenth anniversary of its commencement is an… [Read more]

The past week has been remarkably busy for transitions in important leadership posts. All of these could change their respective regions, if not the world. Here is a round-up: Venezuela: On March 8, Venezuela’s Vice-President Nicolas Maduro was sworn in as acting president, following the death of former president Hugo Chavez. Given Venezuela’s vast oil… [Read more]

Recent events support our stance that Mexico’s president, Enrique Peña Nieto, will be able to push through substantive economic reforms over the coming quarters. First, Elba Esther Gordillo, head of the 1.5mn-strong teachers’ union, was arrested on charges of embezzlement on February 26. Given that she was long considered ‘untouchable’, we believe this served as… [Read more]