The ‘low-key’ (almost anti-climatic) celebrations marking the 50th anniversary since the Cuban revolution on January 1 were highly symbolic of the republic’s current economic, social and political state of affairs. Cuba endured three devastating hurricanes in 2008 (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) incurring damages worth an estimated US$10bn, struggled with soaring fuel and food costs earlier [Read more...]

One barely noticed (there was no mention even on Reuters) but potentially significant event in Central and Eastern Europe over the Christmas period was the declaration of independence by the Ruthenians from Ukraine. Lest you wonder who the Ruthenians are, they are an eastern Slavic ethnic group, one of a handful of peoples in Europe [Read more...]

By now most investors will be familiar with the explosive growth of telecommunications – especially mobile phones – in emerging markets. Yet one notable black hole in the telecoms universe (and other industries for that matter) has been North Korea. However, this week Egypt’s Orascom Telecom launched mobile phone services in the last truly ‘old [Read more...]

Asia’s economies are set to slow sharply in 2009, and this could lead to serious job losses, with potential political and social consequences. Although unemployment in Asia is lower than in most developed states, this comparison is not so relevant, since Asia has become accustomed to its own lower benchmarks.

Here are my thoughts on [Read more...]

One interesting aspect of the current global economic funk is the speed at which China has gone from desperately trying to cool its economy from overheating to desperately trying to boost it. We have already seen aggressive rate cuts, a mammoth fiscal stimulus package, and a halt – indeed, mild reversal – in the rise [Read more...]

As 2008 comes to a close, the much-hyped BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economies are looking increasingly troubled. The only question is: which will fare best? (In the 2009-10 timeframe, not by 2050.)

Perhaps ‘best’ is the wrong term. Chances are, for example, that China and India will grow faster than Brazil, but not without experiencing [Read more...]

US decline theorists are having a field day (year?), thanks to America’s worsening economic crisis. Among those predicting that the US will lose its superpower status are Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, and German finance minister Peer Steinbrück. Last week, even the US National Intelligence Council seemed to hint at the loss [Read more...]