The ‘low-key’ (almost anti-climatic) celebrations marking the 50th anniversary since the Cuban revolution on January 1 were highly symbolic of the republic’s current economic, social and political state of affairs. Cuba endured three devastating hurricanes in 2008 (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) incurring damages worth an estimated US$10bn, struggled with soaring fuel and food costs earlier [Read more...]

Last Wednesday, Watchdog pointed out that the move through US$1.3000/EUR would set up euro gains towards US$1.3800/EUR. At US$1.3400/EUR, I wrote on www.businessmonitor.com that US$1.4900/EUR was a realistic possibility, as the dollar would come under renewed pressure due to Fed easing, in both conventional monetary policy and quantitative terms.

In fact the dollar has depreciated against [Read more...]

Despite the daily barrage of ever worsening macroeconomic data emanating from all developed countries, equity markets have failed to breach the October lows, and have in fact shown a large degree of stability in recent weeks. As has become clear for a little while now, the fact that markets are not reacting negatively to the [Read more...]

A thought. By now, the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing strategy is well underway, with the central bank pushing as much cash as possible into the hands of private commercial banks, hoping that they will then take the money and distribute it throughout the economy in the form of loans. Check out excess [Read more...]

US decline theorists are having a field day (year?), thanks to America’s worsening economic crisis. Among those predicting that the US will lose its superpower status are Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, and German finance minister Peer Steinbrück. Last week, even the US National Intelligence Council seemed to hint at the loss [Read more...]

One useful indicator of when countries will slip into recession or economic downturn is the completion dates of major skyscrapers. I’ve checked lists of major tall buildings, and almost all countries were entering a bleak period economically when prominent towers were completed or nearing completion. (The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat provides a [Read more...]

The big rally in gold over the past few market sessions has caught my eye. It has happened at a time of dollar stability, of increasingly deflationary news, including October’s negative month-on-month CPI reading from the US, and as other commodities have failed to gain traction. Thus, the near-20% move we have seen in bullion, [Read more...]