In Business Monitor Online today, we publish a detailed preview of the US 2012 presidential and congressional elections. Despite the United States’ economic woes, Barack Obama still looks well positioned to win re-election in 2012. Unsurprisingly, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president. In many ways, the… [Read more]
As 2012 begins, the final verdict on 2011 growth is taking shape. BMI‘s expectation is that the US economy will sustain some of the momentum that it began to pick up late in 2011, whereas the eurozone and Chinese economies will continue to demonstrate weakness. This is borne out by purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI) wishes all its readers a very happy new year. On that note, my colleagues and I recently published ‘Our Key Themes For 2012’, which can be found on Business Monitor Online and in the latest edition of our monthly Global Macro Monitor magazine. In many ways, our 2012 preview is a… [Read more]
As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that… [Read more]
The US dollar appears set for further gains heading into 2012. The euro has broken through key support at US$1.32/EUR, and beyond any short-term relief, we expect the currency’s overarching direction to remain downward amid European recession and ECB monetary easing. This would bode ill for emerging European currencies – the Czech koruna and Polish… [Read more]
Towards the end of 2010 our global team identified nine key global themes for 2011, ranging from an intensification of the eurozone debt crisis to ‘all eyes on China’. With 2011 now coming to a close, Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s Head of Europe Country Risk is joined by Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper to see how… [Read more]
US Fed: No Silver Bullet The US Federal Reserve’s surprise move on November 30 to cut dollar swap line rates is a rare bit of good news, but it may ironically ease some of the pressure from European policymakers to make a deal to save the euro at the December 9 EU summit. While we… [Read more]
