We believe that Germany’s weak Q1 2013 GDP reading – minus 1.4% y-o-y in non-seasonally adjusted terms – masks an important shift in the shape of growth, which we expect to be characterised by higher levels of consumption and weaker exports over the next few years. Given that exports comprise over 50% of Germany’s GDP,… [Read more]
Over 90% of global trade travels by ship, making the international freight market a key part of the global economy. Since 2009, the cost of shipping goods by sea has been highly volatile, and now rates look set to fall again, dealing another blow to this crucial industry. This week’s BMI podcast features Michelle Berman,… [Read more]
Below is a summary of Business Monitor International (BMI)’s current views on the global shipping sector: Transpacific shipping rates are still doing relatively better than Asia-Europe rates, but are down in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms. Asia-Europe freight rates are down on lack of demand (due to continued economic woes in the eurozone) and over-supply of vessels… [Read more]
Having tipped off the market at the previous monetary policy meeting that a rate cut was pending, the European Central Bank (ECB) followed through and lowered its benchmark refinancing rate on May 2 by 25bps to 0.50%. The marginal lending rate was slashed by 50bps, effectively squeezing the corridor that constrains the refinancing rate and… [Read more]
The technical outlook for Spanish and German stocks could hold the key to the medium-term macro and market direction for the eurozone. While we remain broadly neutral towards Spanish stocks, which have been in a downtrend for the past five years, we believe a break above resistance at 8,400 for the IBEX index could signal… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published its latest analysis of the global steel industry, and subscribers can read two key articles in our online service. Europe: We continue to see a massive divergence between the outlooks for Western and Eastern Europe’s steel sector over the coming years. Germany, France and Italy will see subdued… [Read more]
BMI has just published its latest quarterly Global Political Outlook, covering the period Q2 2013 to early 2014. As we enter the second quarter of 2013, the immediate political risks facing the world are renewed concerns about the eurozone in light of Italy’s political deadlock and Cyprus’s financial crisis, a possible clash on the Korean… [Read more]
