In Business Monitor Online today, we outline key risks in two economies. In the case of Croatia, we retain our view that the government will seek IMF backing of some sort this year, which will help avert a full-blown crisis in the economy. This is predicated on the increasingly difficult conditions for Croatian financial markets… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Politburo Standing Committee sat down yesterday to discuss our thoughts on China in 2012. Below is a brief summary of what we talked about. These notes were prepared for internal circulation, but given the importance of China, and the fact that our regular readers are probably already familiar with our views,… [Read more]
As 2011 draws to a close, I thought I’d take the opportunity to share some ‘outrageous’ political predictions for 2012. When crafting these, I tried to avoid coming up with ‘obvious’ risks such as the break-up of the eurozone, an Israeli attack on Iran, or a terror attack in a major city. Please note that… [Read more]
Over the coming week, my colleagues and I will be publishing our global and regional economic outlooks for 2012 on Business Monitor Online. The good news is that we have just published our Africa Outlook today. In this article, we identify and discuss five themes for the next 12 months: Weak external demand, due to… [Read more]
Towards the end of 2010 our global team identified nine key global themes for 2011, ranging from an intensification of the eurozone debt crisis to ‘all eyes on China’. With 2011 now coming to a close, Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s Head of Europe Country Risk is joined by Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper to see how… [Read more]
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s confirmation over the weekend that he plans to return to the presidency in March 2012 effectively positions him to rule Russia until 2024 by means of two consecutive six-year terms. This, of course, depends on his health holding out – at 58, he is already at the average Russian male’s… [Read more]
Following predictable Republican gains in Tuesday’s US mid-term elections, there will be a temptation to proclaim President Barack Obama a lame duck. In addition, the 2012 presidential election campaign has all but begun, with speculation already mounting as to whom the Republicans will nominate to challenge Obama. Despite this, I caution against writing off Obama… [Read more]
