BMI’s Africa team cautions that political risk in Sub-Saharan Africa may be on the rise as a full-blown leadership crisis continues to escalate in Nigeria. Alan Cameron and Lisa Lewin provide some insight into an increasingly tense political situation, sharing their views on potential outcomes from the ongoing crisis. The next couple of weeks and [Read more...]

 

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The Republic of Congo’s unrated US$ 2029 sovereign bond is now trading at an all-time high, reflecting the strength of global risk sentiment in general, and the appetite for African fixed income instruments in particular. While I don’t see any fundamental reason for the instrument to continue rising, I do think its recovery bodes well [Read more...]

The Zimbabwean Industrial Index could be one to watch over the next few months after returning about 50% in 2009. If we look at a chart of the performance last year, it is quite plain to see that the index was a bit of slave to politics. Each time there was a positive development the [Read more...]

The Ghana All-Share Index was the worst-performing stock market in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2009, but I believe that it could reverse its fortunes and be among the top performers in 2010. Having experienced a dramatic 48.0% fall in the first half of 2009, the market has found support around 5,200, and now appears to be [Read more...]

As the rally in the more common emerging market assets starts to look shaky, I see a number of reasons to like what’s on offer in frontier markets, Africa in particular. To my mind, the two assets that really stand out are Nigerian equities, and the Ugandan shilling.

In the case of Nigerian stocks, I see [Read more...]

Global politics and commerce have long been centred on major basins, starting with the Mediterranean, then shifting to the Atlantic and later the Pacific oceans. In recent years, the Indian Ocean has emerged as the focus of a new geopolitical competition and a realm for promoting ‘South-South’ trade and investment, especially between China-India and Africa. [Read more...]

Regular readers of RiskWatchdog will recall that back in July, I flagged up the upside potential of several sub-Saharan African currencies. At that time, the units looked well-positioned to appreciate, thanks to rising global risk appetite, bullish technical patterns and the high yields on offer. I am pleased to say that this view has played [Read more...]