Regional Oil and Gas production has bounced back strongly over the last quarter in line with the rapid return of Libyan volumes. We expect full pre-war Libyan output to resume by the second half of 2012. Production is likely to continue growing as high oil prices drive further exploration and production across Africa. The key… [Read more]

Late and insufficient rains in parts of Southern Africa at the end of 2011 have raised concerns that the region could face a period of drought, lean harvests and food shortages after several years of bumper crops. Although we do not believe that a crisis is imminent, we assess the risks posed by poor rains… [Read more]

Over the coming week, my colleagues and I will be publishing our global and regional economic outlooks for 2012 on Business Monitor Online. The good news is that we have just published our Africa Outlook today. In this article, we identify and discuss five themes for the next 12 months: Weak external demand, due to… [Read more]

Chinese companies are to continue seeking iron ore, copper, and bauxite projects overseas as the country has a significant supply deficit in these metals. Regarding iron ore, China accounts for 14.9% of global production but consumes over 40% of the world’s steel output. This differential is replicated in copper and bauxite, and China is thus… [Read more]

Sub-Saharan African assets have not been spared by the weakness that has hit ‘risky’ assets across the board, and my colleagues and I do not think that there is much to like financial market-wise in SSA right at this moment. That said, we are firm believers in the region’s longer-term prospects and we think that… [Read more]

The Q211 GDP data released recently by Statistics South Africa has confirmed many of my suspicions about the state of the South African economy. The recovery is losing momentum and moreover, it is uneven with the supply side in the doldrums while the demand side continues to post robust growth. The economy as a whole… [Read more]

In Business Monitor Online today, my colleagues and I discuss which countries in Latin America and Africa are most vulnerable to a renewed global slowdown emanating from the US and Europe, and the transmission mechanisms that would affect the two regions. Although the impact of a US-European slowdown on Latin America would be severe, we… [Read more]