The Q211 GDP data released recently by Statistics South Africa has confirmed many of my suspicions about the state of the South African economy. The recovery is losing momentum and moreover, it is uneven with the supply side in the doldrums while the demand side continues to post robust growth. The economy as a whole… [Read more]
In Business Monitor Online today, my colleagues and I discuss which countries in Latin America and Africa are most vulnerable to a renewed global slowdown emanating from the US and Europe, and the transmission mechanisms that would affect the two regions. Although the impact of a US-European slowdown on Latin America would be severe, we… [Read more]
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is often regarded as having exciting potential for the Islamic finance market. The region is home to more than 250mn Muslims (over 15% of the world’s Muslim population) and the youthful demographics and under-banked nature of many countries add to the attractiveness. Aside from the obvious religious aspects (ie compliance with shari’a… [Read more]
When it comes to Sub-Saharan African markets, I favour equities as an asset class. Of course, selectivity is key: I prefer Nigerian, Ghanaian and Zambian stocks. In Nigeria’s case, I think improved investor confidence following the election will drive the market higher as participants reduce the political risk premium and focus on the attractive macroeconomic… [Read more]
The United Nations has published its latest population forecasts for the world from now to 2100. The accompanying press release is worth reading, and the online database has been updated accordingly. Of note, the UN sees the world population rising to 10.1bn in 2100, with Africa’s population more than tripling to 3.6bn over the next… [Read more]
In light of current unrest in Egypt, we turn our attention southwards to Sub-Saharan Africa, where political risk is rising in Cote d’Ivoire following last year’s disputed election, and in Uganda and Nigeria ahead of elections in February and April, respectively. Meanwhile, higher inflation threatens to bring instability to other countries in the region. BMI’s… [Read more]
Following recent troubles in North Africa, speculation has been rife about which countries will be next in the line of fire. Many commentators have rightly pointed the finger elsewhere in the Middle East; a few others have suggested that contagion risks are actually more acute South of the Sahara. In one of the ludicrous but… [Read more]
