After a volatile year and a seemingly robust start to 2012, Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe Country Risk & Financial Markets, asked Business Monitor’s Commodities team what the outlook for commodities is for the remainder of the year. John Davies, Ed Coughlan and Ophelie Buchet share their views on the upside potential for the commodity… [Read more]
Late and insufficient rains in parts of Southern Africa at the end of 2011 have raised concerns that the region could face a period of drought, lean harvests and food shortages after several years of bumper crops. Although we do not believe that a crisis is imminent, we assess the risks posed by poor rains… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Commodities Team believes that La Niña weather patterns are likely to return at the end of 2011. The US National Weather Service warned on September 8 that La Niña, the weather condition that caused volatility in commodity markets at the beginning of 2011, has already returned and should strengthen by the… [Read more]
Our focus this week is on the Indian monsoon, which remains a significant and unpredictable factor in determining the country’s agricultural performance, as well as that of headline inflation and economic growth. We only have to look back to the miserable monsoon of 2009, which triggered the worst drought in almost 40 years, to see… [Read more]
Inflationary pressures are of rising concern across both emerging (EM) and developed (DM) markets and are set to remain a key theme in 2011. While a robust economic recovery (in EM) and loose monetary policy (across the board) have been the primary drivers of this phenomenon, rising commodity prices have also played an important role… [Read more]
Heavy flooding in Queensland has affected an area the size of France and Germany combined, disrupting agricultural and mining activities. Speaking from BMI’s Asia headquarters in Singapore, Head of Asia Research Rahul Ghosh, Head of Asia Country Risk & Financial Markets Stuart Allsopp, and Australia Analyst Kelvin Tan talk about the economic and financial market… [Read more]
My colleagues in BMI’s Commodities Team believe that many of the themes we have been highlighting in 2010 will continue to play out in 2011. In sum, the house view is that commodity prices will remain elevated over the course of next year, with cyclical commodities such as base metals potentially outperforming. We also see… [Read more]
