With the spectre of US military bases in Colombia causing another bout of breast-thumping by some regional heads of state, I’ve decided to take a closer look at the age-old debate about whether foreign interest in Latin America is a good or bad thing for the region.

First things first, while US bases appear to have sparked the current fallout, I do not see this as qualitatively different from previous attempts by some of the region’s more colourful leaders to divert attention from their own problems. Tensions between the likes of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and Colombian President Álvaro Uribe have been bubbling beneath the surface for some time now, and Uribe’s pledge to have US forces on Colombian soil seems to be the green flag Chávez needs to deflect attention from allegations over Venezuela’s role in arming the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC).

But that’s not to say growing foreign interest in Latin American isn’t a reality. On the contrary, China, Iran and Russia have all had a much higher profile in the region of late, something that appears to be unsettling some members of US President Obama’s administration. However, out of these three countries, only one has the economic firepower to make any significant difference to LatAm policy direction, and I sincerely doubt China would wish to meddle politically in the White House’s ‘backyard’, for fear of angering its main trading partner.

Regional Political Map

Therefore, rather than raising political risk, greater non-US foreign interest appears to be very much a positive for Latin America, as it helps the region move away from its traditional dependence on the US. It also means political risk will be determined increasingly by domestic economic realities rather than external foreign influence. That’s not to say the likes of Chávez and his allies won’t continue with their divisive anti-US rhetoric (particularly if Brazil and Chile shift to more centre-right administrations by end-2010), but I believe that this will be more of an attempt to divert attention from domestic issues than a real political threat to the region.