Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Commodities Team believes that La Niña weather patterns are likely to return at the end of 2011. The US National Weather Service warned on September 8 that La Niña, the weather condition that caused volatility in commodity markets at the beginning of 2011, has already returned and should strengthen by the… [Read more]
Argentina’s future economic performance is highly dependent on the outcome of the October 23 Presidential election. With an opposition victory looking increasingly unlikely, my colleagues and I do not expect a dramatic about-turn, with President Cristina Fernández set to remain in charge. Although Argentina still has massive economic potential, significant risks exist. Why Is Argentina… [Read more]
Political risk has ceased to be a dominant theme in Latin America over the past couple of years, allowing the region to emerge ever more prominently on global investors’ radar screens since the global financial crisis. The focus, instead, shifted towards the region’s resource wealth, the vast capital investment growth potential and the growing consumer… [Read more]
Political risk in Latin America has not been on most investors’ radar screens since the global financial crisis. Sure, you’ve had the headline grabbing stories about Mexico’s drug cartels, and Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez’s colourful rhetoric still gets a fair bit of exposure outside the region. There’s also been a military coup in Honduras, and… [Read more]
One of my core Latin American views for some time now has been that political risk will be a key determinant of which countries out- and underperform over the medium term. In this respect, the landslide victory for Juan Manuel Santos in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday represents a strong positive… [Read more]
Against an increasingly challenging global economic backdrop, Richard Hamilton, Head of Latin America analysis at Business Monitor International, outlines three core themes for the region. Having been among the first regions to emerge from the global economic downturn in 2009, we take a look at the likely impact of a double-dip in China and an… [Read more]
In the latest twist to the heavily publicised reserve kerfuffle, President Cristina Fernández has this week replaced her contested decree to tap the country’s foreign exchange buffer with a slightly tweaked order to the same end. According to local media, the central bank, now governed by one of Fernández’s close allies, has already started transferring… [Read more]
