There are big question marks over the current policy advocated by the Turkish central bank, which despite stellar economic growth chose to cut interest rates to stem the flow of ‘hot money’. With consumer credit growing at over 40% y-o-y in late May, and inflation beginning to rear its head, we ask Chris Graham, Europe… [Read more]
I like a number Latin American FX majors against the US dollar, but for very different reasons. In Mexico’s case, strong currency performance will continue to be driven by the carry trade, whereas in Brazil the demand for both yield and capital appreciation will keep upside pressure on the real. This view is best highlighted… [Read more]
My colleagues in the Global Strategy team at Business Monitor ran this chart last week, highlighting the sharp differential between German export growth to emerging markets and the developed world. Between 1999 and 2008 the proportion of German exports to emerging markets rose almost 10pps to 29.5% (according to IMF data). Over the same period,… [Read more]
Mexico has attracted more M&A activity in 2010 than any other EM economy with the exception of China, knocking the other regional heavyweight Brazil into third place. With the Mexican peso outperforming most other EM FX majors over the past few months, the benchmark IPC equity index continuing to push record highs, and the country’s… [Read more]
As part of the recent podcast series addressing the build-up of imbalances in the global economy, Bruce Jeffery provides an insight into the nature of balance of payments crises and how they come about. Stuart Allsopp provides an outlook for the painful adjustment process ahead for Venezuela’s balance of payments.
Latvia is the newest victim of the credit crunch. This is not official. No formal application has been made for an IMF bail-out package, nor has it made the front pages of any major newspaper of record on the continent. That said, with the economy contracting by 4.2% in the third quarter (down from 10.1%… [Read more]
