The ‘epic crisis’ scenario which we outlined in a recent podcast appears to be in full swing. With much riding on the decisions policymakers make in the very near term, Business Monitor’s Chief Economic Strategist Tim Cooper and Head of Europe Country Risk & Financial Markets Mark Schaltuper believe that the probability of a Greek… [Read more]
The EU-wide bank stress test results released on July 15 offered little reprieve for financial markets as concerns over the eurozone sovereign debt crisis continue to dominate. At the heart of the stress test scenario is the ‘adverse scenario’, in which the euro-area economy contracts 0.5% in 2011 and equity markets fall 15%, while banks… [Read more]
My colleagues and I have revised up our 2011 real GDP growth forecast for China following the release of higher-than-expected expansion figures of 9.7% y-o-y in Q2 2011. We now see full-year growth coming in at 9.2% (up from 8.9% previously), before falling back to 8.1% in 2012, which means that we are still below… [Read more]
There are big question marks over the current policy advocated by the Turkish central bank, which despite stellar economic growth chose to cut interest rates to stem the flow of ‘hot money’. With consumer credit growing at over 40% y-o-y in late May, and inflation beginning to rear its head, we ask Chris Graham, Europe… [Read more]
On this week’s podcast, we return to the issue of the Spanish economy and specifically, the state of the housing market. BMI’s Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie talks with Europe Analyst Chris Graham on the outlook for Spanish real estate and what it means for growth, the markets and the stability… [Read more]
On this week’s Podcast, BMI’s Spain analyst Chris Graham answers all the key questions concerning the stability and outlook for the Spanish economy. These include: Why is Spain so important for the European outlook? What are the risks of a Spanish banking sector collapse? What has been done to support the banking sector? To what… [Read more]
On this week’s businesss monitor podcast, we assess the state of the European banking sector on the back of the EU-wide stress test results released on July 23. BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie, along with Head of Europe Analysis Mark Schaltuper and Europe Analyst Chris Graham, dissect the methodology of… [Read more]
