After a volatile year and a seemingly robust start to 2012, Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe Country Risk & Financial Markets, asked Business Monitor’s Commodities team what the outlook for commodities is for the remainder of the year. John Davies, Ed Coughlan and Ophelie Buchet share their views on the upside potential for the commodity… [Read more]
Largely based on our expectation that the eurozone crisis will get significantly worse before it is resolved, our core view has been that sideways trade is the best-case scenario for the commodity complex as a whole. With sentiment towards European banks continuing to sour, this view is playing out with particularly bearish implications for industrial… [Read more]
I am modestly bullish grains in 2011, although I do not foresee gains to the extent seen in 2010. The S&PGS grains index rallied roughly 50% over H210 following a slew of disappointing harvests in the northern hemisphere. In particular, downgrades to Russian wheat and US corn production were the key drivers over recent months…. [Read more]
My colleagues in BMI’s Commodities Team believe that many of the themes we have been highlighting in 2010 will continue to play out in 2011. In sum, the house view is that commodity prices will remain elevated over the course of next year, with cyclical commodities such as base metals potentially outperforming. We also see… [Read more]
Commodity markets should remain choppy as we head into an important period that could determine short-term direction for the US dollar. There are several potential fundamental triggers for a dollar comeback in the coming days, including the US midterm congressional elections on November 2 and the announcement on November 3 following the Federal Reserve’s meeting…. [Read more]
The base metals complex has continued to rally in recent weeks in line with the trend in broad risk appetite. However, base metals have also been supported by factors such as a weaker US dollar, as well as a stronger Yuan, which has appreciated by almost 2% since mid-June . This suggests that there are… [Read more]
Commodity markets have been edging higher in recent days as risk appetite has tentatively re-emerged. With several key markets now testing resistance, how much further can commodities bounce? With this question in mind, I would highlight the following: In the event of a continued improvement in risk appetite over the coming days, Brent Crude and… [Read more]
