I believe that commodity markets bottomed out in February, but this does not mean we are out of the woods just yet. Indeed, the economic recovery is expected to remain weak, and my colleagues at Business Monitor International continue to expect a trader’s market characterised by high levels of price volatility. However, there are several… [Read more]
Risk lovers may be starting to get cold feet if recent price action in Emerging Market (EM) equities and commodities is anything to go by. Indeed, I have started to see quite a few compelling short-term sell signals in global markets, and not just confined to the frontier plays, but the major EM risk bellwethers… [Read more]
Further to my musings on whether ‘decoupling’ is fact or fiction, I’d like to briefly point out two of the curiosities of the current global equity rally. The first curiosity is how out of touch the rally seems to be with the fundamentals. My overall view is that this rally is simply a correction in… [Read more]
This week’s market action should eliminate any remaining doubt that we are in a bear market of historic proportions. How historic? There have been some pretty famous bear markets over the last century, and I’ve plotted a few of them on the chart below. Using the peak of the market as the base (at a… [Read more]