Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast [Read more...]

On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we assess the outlook for global treasury markets. 2010 has thus far been a gangbusters year for treasuries and the implications for interest rate and inflation expectations has heavily reinforced our core macroeconomic outlook for a major downturn in global demand growth. Key questions addressed in the podcast include: [Read more...]

 

 Global Treasury Markets: How Low Can Yields Go? [19:14m]
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On Friday, August 6, Business Monitor International’s Head of Research Terry Alexander guest hosted Closing Bell Europe. Key points of discussion included the latest Eurozone GDP releases and asset class strategies amid a rallying bond market.

Having surpassed the US$1trn mark, we take a look at Islamic banking and its outlook over the next couple of years. Liz Martins, Head of Middle East and North Africa analysis at Business Monitor International, discusses some opportunities and threats of an industry that is expected to double in size over the coming five years.

 

 Standard Podcast [15:17m]
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Justifiably, much of the media focus on global markets this past week has been on Southern European treasury yields, which spiked further upward as investors priced in an increasing likelihood of a Greek default. To me though, the far more interesting and meaningful market move of the week, has not been on Southern European bonds, [Read more...]

In the latest twist to the heavily publicised reserve kerfuffle, President Cristina Fernández has this week replaced her contested decree to tap the country’s foreign exchange buffer with a slightly tweaked order to the same end. According to local media, the central bank, now governed by one of Fernández’s close allies, has already started transferring [Read more...]

The Republic of Congo’s unrated US$ 2029 sovereign bond is now trading at an all-time high, reflecting the strength of global risk sentiment in general, and the appetite for African fixed income instruments in particular. While I don’t see any fundamental reason for the instrument to continue rising, I do think its recovery bodes well [Read more...]