I like a number Latin American FX majors against the US dollar, but for very different reasons. In Mexico’s case, strong currency performance will continue to be driven by the carry trade, whereas in Brazil the demand for both yield and capital appreciation will keep upside pressure on the real. This view is best highlighted… [Read more]
My colleagues and I continue to see further medium-term weakness for the US dollar and, in this respect, favour emerging market (EM) currencies. Our top picks in our key market views are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Singapore dollar (SGD). Our other EM favourites include the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian real (BRL) and South… [Read more]
Business Monitor’s bullish stance on a host of emerging market (EM) currencies in recent quarters reflects one of our core macroeconomic assumptions, namely that unprecedented quantitative easing and loose fiscal policy measures in the US in 2009 would ultimately foster significant depreciatory forces for the US dollar. While this may not be visible in the… [Read more]
After a rough 2009, Mexico’s economic fundamentals look set for a breather over the next couple of months, as exports, manufacturing and unemployment levels continue to benefit from unprecedented fiscal stimulus north of the border. If the US Federal Reserve opts to keep the monetary floodgates open for a while longer, this could translate into… [Read more]
In this week’s Business Monitor Podcast ‘role-reversal’ Terry Alexander, Head of Country Risk and Capital Markets at Business Monitor, interviews Mark Schaltuper, Head of Latin American Markets, on the investment outlook for Brazil in 2010. With much of the ‘Great Brazil Hype’ already priced in, Mark argues that the tide may be turning for Brazilian… [Read more]
During a week when the Dow Jones pushed above 10,000 and oil set up a new high this year, there certainly is plenty to look at across emerging markets (EM), and in particular in Latin America. Most Latin equities have been posting further impressive gains this week, and most currencies look strong against the US… [Read more]
During Brazilian President Lula’s recent visit to China, the leaders of the two countries have been discussing, among other things, the prospects of abandoning the US dollar in bilateral trade operations. This would mean that Chinese importers would purchase Brazilian goods in Chinese yuan, and vice versa. Personally, I couldn’t agree more with former Brazilian… [Read more]
