My colleagues and I continue to see further medium-term weakness for the US dollar and, in this respect, favour emerging market (EM) currencies. Our top picks in our key market views are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Singapore dollar (SGD). Our other EM favourites include the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian real (BRL) and South… [Read more]

The decision by the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) to hike the benchmark Selic rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 11.25% at its January meeting alters my 2011 interest rate forecasts but does not shift my outlook for monetary policy, namely that Brazil’s monetary authorities will continue to view rate hikes as something of… [Read more]

Risk Watchdog and his colleagues at Business Monitor International (BMI) have grown very bullish Latin American currencies. Three views in particular stand out and form part of the BMI Global Key Market Views portfolio: Last Friday, my colleagues at BMI initiated a long Chilean peso/short US dollar view, which hit the initial CLP510.00/US$ target within… [Read more]

The Brazilian government and the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) have presented a comprehensive list of measures to tackle the effects of the credit crunch and clogged up money markets. The extent and size of these measures suggest that policymakers in Brazil have recognised the severity of the crisis and are determined to address these… [Read more]