Looking at recent economic data and leading indicators, such as the Ifo Business Climate Index, I get the impression that the economic recovery of Europe’s largest economy knows no bounds. Indeed, after posting its fastest economic growth rate since re-unification (at 2.2%), my colleagues at Business Monitor International have upgraded their real GDP growth forecast… [Read more]
It is now over 9 months since Greece’s sovereign debt crisis brought the Eurozone’s stability to the forefront of investor concerns. With a trillion dollar bailout fund in place, and the recent bounce in the euro (some 5% against the US dollar), can we assume that the worst is now behind us. Justin Patrie, Head… [Read more]
On a nonfarm payrolls day, and with equities looking awful on a long-term basis but well oversold on a short-term basis, Risk Watchdog is looking to the bond market for medium-term clues. Yields in the US and Germany have come down significantly over recent weeks, particularly at the long end. The immediate reason for this… [Read more]
Recent developments in global markets have largely reaffirmed BMI’s pre-existing key views on the eurozone (it looks bad), deflation and inflation (it’s deflation), and the outlook for growth in the second half of 2010 (our expectation for a slowdown is looking better and better). Mark Schaltuper is joined by Tim Cooper, BMI’s Chief Economist, to… [Read more]
The dominant global macroeconomic theme over the past six weeks has been — with apologies to our good friends Fannie and Freddie — indications of deteriorating economic conditions in Europe (and I’d lump the UK in there). The big problem is that the global economy is also deteriorating, and meanwhile, the European Central Bank is… [Read more]
