Emerging Market (EM) equities are looking good at the moment, there is no doubt about it, and as regular readers of Riskwatchdog will already know, I am particularly bullish towards Polish, Turkish and Abu Dhabi stocks. But now looking elsewhere for the next big thing, I turn my attention to Latin America, identifying Peru as… [Read more]
The US Federal Reserve has declared war on deflation by announcing QE 2.0, taking the ongoing competitive debasement among major central banks to the next level. Not only has this seen the US dollar weaken sharply against FX majors, such as the euro, Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, but perhaps even more notably, the… [Read more]
The US Imperial Reserve has declared war on Bretton Woods II. I am personally surprised at how vehement the comments of some FOMC members have been. They are fulfilling a function that the politicians cannot seem to bring themselves to perform: fighting mercantilist export states with their own medicine. Today’s import numbers (record China deficit… [Read more]
In line with my view that Brazil was the most likely country in Latin America to introduce capital controls to stem currency appreciation, Finance Minister Guido Mantega has announced a doubling of the tax on foreign purchases of fixed income securities from 2% to 4% with immediate effect. The move essentially increases the tax first… [Read more]
Massive capital inflows across South America raise the spectre that authorities throughout the region are about to impose capital controls. Support for exporters appears to be the main reason for such intervention, but fears over a rapid withdrawal of ‘hot money’ in the event of another ‘double-dip’ also appear to be a factor. Risk Watchdog… [Read more]
Modesty is a virtue that Risk Watchdog admires as much as the next investor, but the decision to relax capital controls on equities in Colombia could have come straight out of his own Les Propheties. As predicted, Bogotá has finally seen sense and removed requirements that foreign investors deposit 50% of their stock investments in… [Read more]
