As many readers will have observed over the past few weeks, Hungary has become the focus of attention in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), and for all the wrong reasons. The country finds itself caught in a financial storm equivalent in magnitude to that witnessed in late 2008, with the forint trading close to its… [Read more]

Left-wing populist candidate Ollanta Humala has taken the lead in the first round of Peru’s presidential elections held on April 10, according to data from the electoral commission and independent pollsters. Should Humala eventually emerge victorious over the centre-right candidate, most probably Keiko Fujimori (daughter of former president Alberto), in the run-off in June, we… [Read more]

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva appears set on wielding the military to enforce a tough crackdown on the opposition pro-Thaksin Shinawatra ‘Red Shirt’ protestors, currently encamped in the commercial Ratchaprasong area. In my view, the use of force will do little to address the deep-rooted issues dividing the urban elites and the rural poor. Thai assets… [Read more]

The fixed income investment community has been shaken up by growing concerns over Greece’s creditworthiness, which appear to be spreading like a bush fire across eurozone peripheral states. While concerns over significant sovereign credit risk are currently limited to the euro area and Dubai, my colleagues at BMI believe that Latin American government credit, too,… [Read more]

After a rough 2009, Mexico’s economic fundamentals look set for a breather over the next couple of months, as exports, manufacturing and unemployment levels continue to benefit from unprecedented fiscal stimulus north of the border. If the US Federal Reserve opts to keep the monetary floodgates open for a while longer, this could translate into… [Read more]

We have previously highlighted on Risk Watchdog how the aftermath of the global financial crisis has exposed the structural imbalances in many developed economies, while also singling out those emerging markets which are in a fundamentally sound position to exploit the global economic recovery. Poland and Greece are certainly two prime examples at opposite ends… [Read more]

Having rung up over US$25bn in debts, and four state bailouts in the past decade, Japan Airlines – Asia’s largest airline – has finally filed for bankruptcy protection. The beleaguered company made the filing yesterday, and although the government has pledged to keep the carrier in the air, almost 16,000 jobs will be slashed in… [Read more]