For all the doom and gloom surrounding European markets on the back of the Greek sovereign crisis and concomitant sell-off in euro and sterling, emerging market currencies in the region still look bid. Traditionally, when EUR/US$ has weakened, so too have benchmark central European cross rates such as PLN/EUR and CZK/EUR. However, this correlation has [Read more...]

On Monday, November 9, much of Europe will be celebrating the 20th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall and the catalyst it provided for the collapse of Communism on the continent. BMI’s Justin Patrie explains the significance of this event for Emerging Europe, and what the outlook is for the next 20 years [Read more...]

 

 Standard Podcast [8:33m]
Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

BMI’s Justin Patrie cautions against premature excitement following the release of Q2 GDP data for several CEE and eurozone economies. Nevertheless, differentiation will remain key and the usual suspects (i.e. Turkey and Poland) continue to stand out as the ideal relative value play.

 

 Standard Podcast [9:02m]
Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Despite the whopping 13.8% y-o-y real GDP contraction in Q109, I have stuck to my view that Turkey is among the best macro plays in emerging Europe. This strategic view has been formed out of three key premises: 1. The Turkish banking sector is among the most stable in Europe with among the highest growth [Read more...]

Three months ago, Justin Patrie, Head of Emerging Europe at Business Monitor came onto the podcast to discuss Central and Eastern Europe. At the time, very weak Q408-Q109 economic data suggested a deep macroeconomic crisis, with the level of contraction unprecedented in the post-Soviet era. Since then, though, global market and macro sentiment has [Read more...]

 

 Standard Podcast [8:21m]
Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

With public unrest and ethnic tensions rising, we look at the role the economy has played in fostering political risk around the world, from China’s Xinjiang province to Central America on the eve of a military coup in Honduras. BMI’s Europe, Asia and Latin America analysts all agree, political risk will remain a force to [Read more...]

 

 Standard Podcast [15:32m]
Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

For several months now, I have run with the view for a devaluation of the Baltic and Bulgarian currencies. The core scenario has always been that such a move would likely not take place until end-2009/early 2010, but today we got a taste of just how acute the risks are of a much quicker and [Read more...]