With public unrest and ethnic tensions rising, we look at the role the economy has played in fostering political risk around the world, from China’s Xinjiang province to Central America on the eve of a military coup in Honduras. BMI’s Europe, Asia and Latin America analysts all agree, political risk will remain a force to… [Read more]
For several months now, I have run with the view for a devaluation of the Baltic and Bulgarian currencies. The core scenario has always been that such a move would likely not take place until end-2009/early 2010, but today we got a taste of just how acute the risks are of a much quicker and… [Read more]
Moldova is in the midst of yet another political crisis. By this, I actually mean that the country has entered a new phase of a pre-existing crisis – a crisis that yields valuable lessons on the broader significance of political institutions to a country’s risk profile. Fortunately, this new scene in the ongoing drama has… [Read more]
In case you hadn’t noticed, there’s been trouble in Moldova and Georgia of late. The reason that both small ex-Soviet states have erupted onto your TV screens (and Risk Watchdog) this week is that both have seen crowds of 10,000+ angry citizens take to the streets of their respective capital cities to protest against their… [Read more]
Business Monitor’s recent downward revision of its 2009 Hungarian economic growth forecast to -6.4% well reflects my view that the systemic crisis risks I have been highlighting since Q308 have morphed into the region’s core scenario. While small economies like the Baltics and frontier markets such as Ukraine have long been forecast to contract in… [Read more]
It’s hard to believe how conditions have changed CEE, you’re acting a little bit deranged. Where once there were dreams of economic convergence We now have nightmares, of defaults and divergence. As growth turns to slowdown, and slowdown to recession I hesitate to look forward, for the likely depression. Ok, enough armchair poetry. Let’s get… [Read more]
