As I write in the latest edition of Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM), EM currencies are, on the whole, due some appreciation against the US dollar over the coming months. My colleagues and I turned bullish towards the Russian rouble versus the EUR/US$ basket last week in our Key Market Views matrix, and remain bullish on… [Read more]
The Chilean peso (CLP) has long been my favourite Latin American currency, primarily because of the perceived lack of intervention risk from the Banco Central de Chile (BCC). Indeed, central bank President José de Gregorio has reiterated on numerous occasions his beliefs that: a) currency intervention is costly and, on occasion, ineffective, and b) the… [Read more]
While my bullish Latin American fixed income views have played out really well of late, other Latin American asset classes have been much harder to call. A case in point has been Brazil’s Bovespa equity index which, despite the rapid sell-off in April and May is trading pretty much where it started the year. I… [Read more]
Massive capital inflows across South America raise the spectre that authorities throughout the region are about to impose capital controls. Support for exporters appears to be the main reason for such intervention, but fears over a rapid withdrawal of ‘hot money’ in the event of another ‘double-dip’ also appear to be a factor. Risk Watchdog… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, we continue our theme of ‘top emerging market picks’ with a focus on Latin America. BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie discusses the region with Head of Latin America Analysis Richard Hamilton and Latin America Analyst Martha Stickings. Specific countries discussed include Colombia, Brazil, Panama… [Read more]
Against an increasingly challenging global economic backdrop, Richard Hamilton, Head of Latin America analysis at Business Monitor International, outlines three core themes for the region. Having been among the first regions to emerge from the global economic downturn in 2009, we take a look at the likely impact of a double-dip in China and an… [Read more]
It is too early to call the peak in Latin American equities, especially when there is so much liquidity floating around. However, recent price action combined with macro concerns imply that another significant downleg may not be far off. Since the start of the year LatAm stocks have been the EM outperformers, but while Risk… [Read more]
