One interesting aspect of the current global economic funk is the speed at which China has gone from desperately trying to cool its economy from overheating to desperately trying to boost it. We have already seen aggressive rate cuts, a mammoth fiscal stimulus package, and a halt – indeed, mild reversal – in the rise [Read more...]

As 2008 comes to a close, the much-hyped BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) economies are looking increasingly troubled. The only question is: which will fare best? (In the 2009-10 timeframe, not by 2050.)

Perhaps ‘best’ is the wrong term. Chances are, for example, that China and India will grow faster than Brazil, but not without experiencing [Read more...]

As economic activity continues to cool in China, my thoughts are increasingly turning to the potential social fallout of waning growth. Reduced demand from China’s key export markets is having a significant impact on manufacturing activity, leading to the closure of factories and consequently, rising unemployment. Indeed, it has been reported that more than 60,000 [Read more...]

Last Saturday was a sad day for world trade, with Somali pirates seizing a Saudi-owned tanker carrying US$100 million worth of oil. The Sirius Star was hijacked 450 miles off the coast of Kenya, becoming the largest vessel ever hijacked.

If you thought that piracy was the stuff of old swashbuckling tales, think again. Indeed, [Read more...]

It was not too long ago that everyone was asking ‘when will China finally let the yuan go?’ [i.e. appreciate rapidly]. Indeed, back in March, when consumer price inflation was at 8.3% y-o-y, non-deliverable forwards (NDFs – a basic measure of investors’ expectations) were pricing in 13% appreciation for the yuan over the following 12 [Read more...]

China’s launch of its third manned space mission – and its first to attempt a spacewalk – today underscores the rising importance with which it views the heavens. However, it is not alone, for India (which is planning its first unmanned moon mission next month) and Japan are taking space increasingly seriously. Even Iran’s state [Read more...]

Is China entering a time of troubles? Yesterday’s 0.27% interest rate cut – the first in six years – and today’s 4.5% fall in the Shanghai Composite Index to a 20-month low of 1,987 may suggest so. The stock market is now down 68% from its peak in October 2007, and I do not preclude [Read more...]