While my colleagues at Business Monitor believe developed-state equity markets will outperform EM equities in 2011, they still believe it is still too early to call the end of the EM equity rally, and I tend to agree with them. True, many Latin American bourses look expensive, and this contrasts starkly to developed states, where… [Read more]
Several developments in 2010 will linger well into 2011. My colleagues and BMI’s Oil and Gas Team see industry majors continuing their push into deepwater drilling and unconventional hydrocarbons, while cash-rich national oil companies keep looking for upstream opportunities. Depressed US gas prices are unlikely to move significantly in 2011, while Asia-Pacific remains the LNG… [Read more]
While my bullish Latin American fixed income views have played out really well of late, other Latin American asset classes have been much harder to call. A case in point has been Brazil’s Bovespa equity index which, despite the rapid sell-off in April and May is trading pretty much where it started the year. I… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast we assess the outlook for global treasury markets. 2010 has thus far been a gangbusters year for treasuries and the implications for interest rate and inflation expectations has heavily reinforced our core macroeconomic outlook for a major downturn in global demand growth. Key questions addressed in the podcast include:… [Read more]
Massive capital inflows across South America raise the spectre that authorities throughout the region are about to impose capital controls. Support for exporters appears to be the main reason for such intervention, but fears over a rapid withdrawal of ‘hot money’ in the event of another ‘double-dip’ also appear to be a factor. Risk Watchdog… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, we continue our theme of ‘top emerging market picks’ with a focus on Latin America. BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie discusses the region with Head of Latin America Analysis Richard Hamilton and Latin America Analyst Martha Stickings. Specific countries discussed include Colombia, Brazil, Panama… [Read more]
One of my core Latin American views for some time now has been that political risk will be a key determinant of which countries out- and underperform over the medium term. In this respect, the landslide victory for Juan Manuel Santos in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday represents a strong positive… [Read more]
