Coffee is shaping up to post a strong monthly close which bolsters my medium-term bullish view. Moreover, while not my core scenario, I would not rule out a significant spike in prices over the coming months, as has happened in the past.

My colleagues at Business Monitor Online recently alluded to this potential in late June. [Read more...]

Commodity markets have been edging higher in recent days as risk appetite has tentatively re-emerged. With several key markets now testing resistance, how much further can commodities bounce? With this question in mind, I would highlight the following:

In the event of a continued improvement in risk appetite over the coming days, Brent Crude and Base [Read more...]

The downward revision to China’s leading economic index has weighed significantly on equity and commodity markets this morning. The conference board claimed that the index rose by only 0.3% in April, marking a significant downward revision from the 1.7% released earlier this month. This ties in well with several of Business Monitor’s views; a relatively [Read more...]

US President Barack Obama’s decision to replace General Stanley McChrystal as commander in Afghanistan raises the question of how the war effort there is likely to proceed under new commander General David Petraeus.  BMI’s Tim Cooper talks to Yoel Sano, Head of Political Risk, about the future of Afghanistan.

 

 What Next For Afghanistan? [16:00m]
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This week Mark Schaltuper is joined by Cedric Chehab, Head of Commodities Research at BMI, to discuss the outlook for the commodity complex. With macroeconomic headwinds in the making, how will cyclical commodities perform relative to grains and softs, and what are the risks of gold forming a bubble?

 

 Standard Podcast [14:48m]
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I expect soft commodity markets to continue trading in a volatile fashion over the coming weeks driven chiefly by their own specific supply and demand dynamics, rather than wider macro-developments. My key thoughts are as follows:

The cocoa market will likely to remain volatile and I do not rule out continued gains in the coming weeks [Read more...]

One of the news stories drawing my attention today is a report in the New York Times suggesting that Afghanistan has almost US$1 trillion worth of mineral deposits. The article, citing US geologists, lists iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and lithium as existing in vast quantities in the country’s soil. Lithium in particular has been highlighted, [Read more...]