After a volatile year and a seemingly robust start to 2012, Mark Schaltuper, Head of Europe Country Risk & Financial Markets, asked Business Monitor’s Commodities team what the outlook for commodities is for the remainder of the year. John Davies, Ed Coughlan and Ophelie Buchet share their views on the upside potential for the commodity… [Read more]
Commodity prices have dramatically fallen out of their multi-year uptrends in recent months, as the global macroeconomic environment has deteriorated and risk aversion swept through markets. This week, Edward Coughlan, BMI’s Head of Mining Analysis is joined by John Davies, Head of Commodities Analysis, to discuss the outlook for commodity prices in 2012.
Chinese companies are to continue seeking iron ore, copper, and bauxite projects overseas as the country has a significant supply deficit in these metals. Regarding iron ore, China accounts for 14.9% of global production but consumes over 40% of the world’s steel output. This differential is replicated in copper and bauxite, and China is thus… [Read more]
Business Monitor International (BMI)’s Commodities Team believes that La Niña weather patterns are likely to return at the end of 2011. The US National Weather Service warned on September 8 that La Niña, the weather condition that caused volatility in commodity markets at the beginning of 2011, has already returned and should strengthen by the… [Read more]
Largely based on our expectation that the eurozone crisis will get significantly worse before it is resolved, our core view has been that sideways trade is the best-case scenario for the commodity complex as a whole. With sentiment towards European banks continuing to sour, this view is playing out with particularly bearish implications for industrial… [Read more]
Despite signs that a last-minute agreement on raising the US debt ceiling will be reached before today’s deadline, Risk Watchdog remains neutral commodity markets. This is due to the view that other macro headwinds will keep commodity prices in check over H211. In this environment, gold should continue outperforming. Although a short-term rally is possible… [Read more]
The risks to the global economy are mounting, following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan in March and the spike in oil prices on the back of the political crises in the Middle East and North Africa. BMI’s core global economic scenario is for steady growth for the remainder of the year and into 2012,… [Read more]
