While my colleagues at Business Monitor believe developed-state equity markets will outperform EM equities in 2011, they still believe it is still too early to call the end of the EM equity rally, and I tend to agree with them. True, many Latin American bourses look expensive, and this contrasts starkly to developed states, where… [Read more]
A couple of years ago, I coined the acronym BLANKs to describe a group of Asian economies which have considerable development potential, but are being constrained by highly esoteric political or geopolitical problems. The countries in question are Burma (officially called Myanmar), Laos, Afghanistan, and North Korea. At the time, I cautioned that despite their… [Read more]
I am modestly bullish grains in 2011, although I do not foresee gains to the extent seen in 2010. The S&PGS grains index rallied roughly 50% over H210 following a slew of disappointing harvests in the northern hemisphere. In particular, downgrades to Russian wheat and US corn production were the key drivers over recent months…. [Read more]
As we head into 2011, my colleagues at BMI’s Latin America Rearch Team have outlined four core themes which will shape Latin America’s macro and market outlook for the upcoming year. 1. Monetary Policy – An End To Inflation Targeting? A desire to maintain export competitiveness will continue to slow the pace of policy rate… [Read more]
My colleagues in BMI’s Commodities Team believe that many of the themes we have been highlighting in 2010 will continue to play out in 2011. In sum, the house view is that commodity prices will remain elevated over the course of next year, with cyclical commodities such as base metals potentially outperforming. We also see… [Read more]
With 2010 fast winding to a close, BMI’s Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie and Global Economic Strategist review the macro, market and political risk dynamics of the year. Specifically, we revisit the ’10 Themes for 2010‘ we set out at the end of 2009, assessing those predictions against actual developments. Key… [Read more]
While soft commodity markets including sugar, cocoa and coffee will all be sensitive to supply threats in the short-to-medium term given that all of these markets are tight by historical standards, I am keeping a particularly close eye on cocoa. On one hand, the West African main crop has made a strong start since October,… [Read more]
