In line with our long-held expectations of an enduring economic slowdown in India, the recently-released GDP figure showed a sharp downturn in activity – marking the sixth consecutive quarter where headline expansion has decelerated. Real GDP growth came in at 6.9% y-o-y in the second quarter of the current fiscal year (FY2011/12, April-March), down significantly… [Read more]

China’s 2010 real GDP growth figure came in at 10.3%, slightly exceeding BMI’s revised forecast of 10.2%. With no breakdown of the data available as of yet, I can only conclude that growth momentum ended 2010 on a stronger note than expected (by ourselves and the market). Data on retail sales, which rose by 19.1%… [Read more]

Global consumption of building materials is likely to experience a slowdown in 2011 as China’s appetite for products such as cement and steel weakens. While non-China emerging markets (EM) should see demand for building materials accelerate over the next twelve months, an increasingly uncertain outlook in mature markets (and Europe especially) combined with a cooling… [Read more]

China is foremost on my mind. Regular readers of our online service will know that my colleagues and I at Business Monitor International (BMI) are well below consensus in predicting only 7.5% real GDP growth in 2011. Below, I list some thoughts on this subject: Growth slowdown: The notion of a ‘hard landing’ for China’s… [Read more]

Riskwatchdog recently attended a Bloomberg Africa focus day where several speakers discussed the potential offered by the African consumer in a challenge to the often-held view that the continent is a pure resource play. My colleagues in the Africa team at BMI are equally excited by the prospects for private consumption growth over the coming… [Read more]