Chinese companies are to continue seeking iron ore, copper, and bauxite projects overseas as the country has a significant supply deficit in these metals. Regarding iron ore, China accounts for 14.9% of global production but consumes over 40% of the world’s steel output. This differential is replicated in copper and bauxite, and China is thus… [Read more]

Zambia held its general elections on September 20 2011, in which opposition candidate Michael Sata, from the Patriotic Front political party, emerged victorious. Most analysts were expecting a closely fought battle, but had tipped incumbent President Rupiah Banda to retain his position. Sata’s win poses important questions for Zambia, since his long political career has… [Read more]

Largely based on our expectation that the eurozone crisis will get significantly worse before it is resolved, our core view has been that sideways trade is the best-case scenario for the commodity complex as a whole. With sentiment towards European banks continuing to sour, this view is playing out with particularly bearish implications for industrial… [Read more]

I’ve long highlighted the growth potential in Zambia, which has benefitted from high prices for its key exports, an improving business environment, and strong investor sentiment, leading to a surge of FDI at the end of 2010 and into 2011. Reflecting this optimism, BMI’s Sub-Saharan Africa team officially entered a bullish key market view on… [Read more]

As I write in the latest edition of Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM), EM currencies are, on the whole, due some appreciation against the US dollar over the coming months. My colleagues and I turned bullish towards the Russian rouble versus the EUR/US$ basket last week in our Key Market Views matrix, and remain bullish on… [Read more]

The Chilean peso (CLP) has long been my favourite Latin American currency, primarily because of the perceived lack of intervention risk from the Banco Central de Chile (BCC). Indeed, central bank President José de Gregorio has reiterated on numerous occasions his beliefs that: a) currency intervention is costly and, on occasion, ineffective, and b) the… [Read more]

BMI’s Africa team is highly optimistic about the Zambian economy, and we believe that GDP growth is likely to exceed 7% in 2011. In a recently published article on Business Monitor Online, we specify three key drivers for growth in the near future: · A good and improving business environment. Zambia is a top-ten reformer… [Read more]