Commodity markets should remain choppy as we head into an important period that could determine short-term direction for the US dollar. There are several potential fundamental triggers for a dollar comeback in the coming days, including the US midterm congressional elections on November 2 and the announcement on November 3 following the Federal Reserve’s meeting…. [Read more]
The downward revision to China’s leading economic index has weighed significantly on equity and commodity markets this morning. The conference board claimed that the index rose by only 0.3% in April, marking a significant downward revision from the 1.7% released earlier this month. This ties in well with several of Business Monitor’s views; a relatively… [Read more]
One of the news stories drawing my attention today is a report in the New York Times suggesting that Afghanistan has almost US$1 trillion worth of mineral deposits. The article, citing US geologists, lists iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and lithium as existing in vast quantities in the country’s soil. Lithium in particular has been highlighted,… [Read more]
We revisit the theme of China’s procurement of natural resources on a massive scale, and its impact on commodity markets. Matt Mirecki and Cedric Chehab discuss the sustainability of Chinese strategic stockpiling of metals and grains in light of persisting over-capacity in the economy. Cedric further explains why his outlook for the general commodity complex… [Read more]
The global commodity complex rallied for the most of March, but I question whether this move can turn into a sustained bounce. Indeed, I believe that the rally came on the back of a confluence of short-term factors. However, over the medium term, fundamentals still point towards further weakness for commodities. Given the magnitude of… [Read more]
