Posts Tagged ‘crisis’
Wed Feb 3, 2010 15:01 UTC |
There are growing indications that the Iranian banking system is in crisis, weighed down by a proliferation of non-performing loans. Although there is no timely financial reporting to speak of in Iran, a number of recent news stories suggest to me that the country’s banks are in a great deal of trouble.
Central Bank of [Read more...]
Tags: banking sector, crisis, Economy, financial stability, Iran
Posted in: Financials, General, Middle East, Political Risk
Tue Sep 22, 2009 17:03 UTC |
One of the things that has been keeping me awake at night lately is Japan’s horrendous government debt burden. This is already more than 170% of GDP and will only keep rising as the budget deficit surges this year and GDP plummets. I forecast government debt reaching 250% of GDP by the end of 2018, [Read more...]
Tags: Argentina, burden, crisis, Debt, debt-to-GDP, Default, fiscal, gross debt, Japan, JGB
Posted in: Asia, General, Inflation/Deflation, Political Risk
Fri Aug 21, 2009 16:04 UTC |
Surprise, surprise, there is (yet again) trouble brewing in Nigeria. Nope, this time the spotlight is not on the Niger Delta rebels, but on something potentially far more deadly: the country’s banking sector. Sounds familiar? Indeed, as attentive Risk Watchdog readers might remember, way back in January I mentioned how opaque reporting standards and large [Read more...]
Tags: audit, banking sector, crisis, Equities, margin loans, Nigeria
Posted in: Africa, Equities, Financials, General
Mon Jun 22, 2009 17:18 UTC |
Scenario planning is an essential element of risk analysis and management, and my colleagues and I at Business Monitor International constantly have to envisage potential chains of events in economies, financial markets, and the political arena. With this in mind, I thought I’d take the opportunity to comment on a book I read recently: 7 [Read more...]
Tags: 7 Deadly Scenarios, Andrew Krepinevich, Book Review, crisis, threat assessment, US foreign policy
Posted in: Asia, Book Review, China, General, Geopolitics, Middle East, Political Risk, US
Wed May 27, 2009 14:56 UTC |
Moldova is in the midst of yet another political crisis. By this, I actually mean that the country has entered a new phase of a pre-existing crisis – a crisis that yields valuable lessons on the broader significance of political institutions to a country’s risk profile. Fortunately, this new scene in the ongoing drama has [Read more...]
Tags: authoritarianism, Belarus, CEE, Central Asia, Constitution, crisis, Czech Republic, democracy, democratisation, Emerging Europe, Institutions, Legislature, Moldova, policymaking, Political Risk, political stability, political system, post-Soviet, president, Ukraine, USSR
Posted in: Emerging Europe, Geopolitics, Political Risk
Thu Jan 15, 2009 18:15 UTC |
With Bank of America and Citi Group’s share prices in renewed meltdown mode, the risk of a further collapse of a major Western bank has again made international headlines. While far less publicised (yet by no means less important for the people concerned), I believe that there is also a potential banking crisis brewing in [Read more...]
Tags: banking sector, crisis, Default, Nigeria, Stock Index
Posted in: Africa, Equities, Financials, General
Wed Nov 12, 2008 16:14 UTC |
Latvia is the newest victim of the credit crunch. This is not official. No formal application has been made for an IMF bail-out package, nor has it made the front pages of any major newspaper of record on the continent. That said, with the economy contracting by 4.2% in the third quarter (down from 10.1% [Read more...]
Tags: Balance of Payments, crisis, Current Account Deficit, External Debt, FX, IMF, Interbank, Latvia, recession, Refinancing, Reserves, Rouble, Russia
Posted in: Currencies, Emerging Europe, Financials