The assassination of Punjab governor Salman Taseer on January 4 is yet another blow to Pakistan’s turbulent political scene, where Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani’s government has lost its majority in parliament following the departure of a key coalition partner recently. Taseer’s death came barely three years after opposition leader and ex-premier Benazir Bhutto was… [Read more]
Japan’s new prime minister, Naoto Kan, has been given a poisoned chalice to say the least. Although GDP is growing again, the magnitude of the country’s economic challenges is gargantuan: A fiscal deficit of around 10% of GDP A public debt burden of 200% of GDP An ageing and shrinking population Weak private consumption Consumer… [Read more]
Justifiably, much of the media focus on global markets this past week has been on Southern European treasury yields, which spiked further upward as investors priced in an increasing likelihood of a Greek default. To me though, the far more interesting and meaningful market move of the week, has not been on Southern European bonds,… [Read more]
There is no question that China’s economy is booming, with growth spiking to 11.9% in the first quarter. The world’s largest country (by population) appears to have swept off the global recession with aplomb and many an analyst are counting on Chinese demand to drive a new global growth cycle. But is this growth sustainable… [Read more]
The outlook for the eurozone is looking steadily worse. Key European economies have thus far failed to capitalise on the bounce in headline growth seen in the US and emerging markets. Concomitantly, a brewing sovereign crisis in Greece has highlighted serious problems of overleverage in Portugal, Spain and Italy. On this week’s podcast, Business Monitor… [Read more]
There are growing indications that the Iranian banking system is in crisis, weighed down by a proliferation of non-performing loans. Although there is no timely financial reporting to speak of in Iran, a number of recent news stories suggest to me that the country’s banks are in a great deal of trouble. Central Bank of… [Read more]
One of the things that has been keeping me awake at night lately is Japan’s horrendous government debt burden. This is already more than 170% of GDP and will only keep rising as the budget deficit surges this year and GDP plummets. I forecast government debt reaching 250% of GDP by the end of 2018,… [Read more]
