Although a deal on private sector writedowns of Greek debt has yet to be reached, the risk rally that began in October 2011 remains in place. Measures taken by the European Central Bank, such as cutting interest rates and providing unlimited banking sector liquidity, have certainly helped stabilise financial markets in the eurozone and beyond… [Read more]
The imminent release of Q2 2011 US GDP figures on the afternoon (13:30 London time) of Friday July 29 and the stalemate over the federal debt ceiling ahead of the August 2 deadline will shape the near-term direction for markets. We see a good chance of a US credit rating downgrade by at least one… [Read more]
Helped by a 25bps hike in eurozone interest rates to 1.25% on Thursday, the euro has broken through US$1.4300/EUR to trade at a 14-month high of US$1.4441/EUR at one stage on April 8, in line with BMI’s bullish view of the currency. In fact, my colleagues and I envisage further short-term gains to our upside… [Read more]
BMI‘s Asia Research Team has identified two currencies – the Singapore dollar and Indonesian rupiah – which it believes will outperform others in the region. Essentially, we prefer currencies with robust current account dynamics and clear indications by the central banks that currency strength is preferred to curb rising consumer price inflation. The SGD and… [Read more]
Today in Business Monitor Online, and in this week’s Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) magazine, my colleagues and I outline our latest views of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) economies. The BRIC countries remain among our top growth picks over the long run, and we forecast real GDP expansion to average in excess of… [Read more]
It has been a hectic week for China watchers, with a stream of economic data releases, policy initiatives and rumours of anointed government successors leaving investors with little time to pause for thought. Indeed, a four-day meeting to discuss China’s next five-year plan was quickly followed by the country’s first interest rate hike in three… [Read more]
In line with my view that Brazil was the most likely country in Latin America to introduce capital controls to stem currency appreciation, Finance Minister Guido Mantega has announced a doubling of the tax on foreign purchases of fixed income securities from 2% to 4% with immediate effect. The move essentially increases the tax first… [Read more]
