For all the doom and gloom surrounding European markets on the back of the Greek sovereign crisis and concomitant sell-off in euro and sterling, emerging market currencies in the region still look bid. Traditionally, when EUR/US$ has weakened, so too have benchmark central European cross rates such as PLN/EUR and CZK/EUR. However, this correlation has [Read more...]

In line with the view I have been promoting on Business Monitor Online, spot gold has continued to push higher in recent trading to hit a new high of US$1,095/oz at one point on Wednesday. I see potential for gold to head even higher in the short term as US dollar weakness, weaker equities, and [Read more...]

With global equity markets pushing through key technical levels and international investor confidence rising, certain sub-Saharan African (SSA) currencies have caught my eye. Aside from tentative improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals, many currencies offer high interest rates, which are likely to attract capital inflows on the back of increasing global risk appetite. Perhaps more importantly, several [Read more...]

For several months now, I have run with the view for a devaluation of the Baltic and Bulgarian currencies. The core scenario has always been that such a move would likely not take place until end-2009/early 2010, but today we got a taste of just how acute the risks are of a much quicker and [Read more...]

If you are an exporter, here is a short quiz to determine what kind of a year 2009 is likely to be. Give yourself one point for every statement that applies to you.

Your business involves exporting cheap consumer goods to Western consumers, who find themselves struggling to pay off their mortgages, let alone US$1,000+ plasma [Read more...]

In line with my view of a renewed bounce in the US dollar (which is playing out really nicely, by the way), I believe that the recent gains of some sub-Saharan African currencies could be rather short-lived. Indeed, over at businessmonitor.com, I have been highlighting the potential for a rally in the Kenyan shilling, which [Read more...]

If you think emerging Europe currencies have run their course to the downside, take another look at the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). This being the only European sub-region dominated by dollar pegs, monetary authorities for the most part have only recently succumbed to mounting fundamental pressures. While the Ukrainian hryvnia, Russian rouble and Georgian [Read more...]