In line with my view that Brazil was the most likely country in Latin America to introduce capital controls to stem currency appreciation, Finance Minister Guido Mantega has announced a doubling of the tax on foreign purchases of fixed income securities from 2% to 4% with immediate effect. The move essentially increases the tax first… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, we continue our theme of ‘top emerging market picks’ with a focus on Latin America. BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie discusses the region with Head of Latin America Analysis Richard Hamilton and Latin America Analyst Martha Stickings. Specific countries discussed include Colombia, Brazil, Panama… [Read more]
Business Monitor’s bullish stance on a host of emerging market (EM) currencies in recent quarters reflects one of our core macroeconomic assumptions, namely that unprecedented quantitative easing and loose fiscal policy measures in the US in 2009 would ultimately foster significant depreciatory forces for the US dollar. While this may not be visible in the… [Read more]
For all the doom and gloom surrounding European markets on the back of the Greek sovereign crisis and concomitant sell-off in euro and sterling, emerging market currencies in the region still look bid. Traditionally, when EUR/US$ has weakened, so too have benchmark central European cross rates such as PLN/EUR and CZK/EUR. However, this correlation has… [Read more]
In line with the view I have been promoting on Business Monitor Online, spot gold has continued to push higher in recent trading to hit a new high of US$1,095/oz at one point on Wednesday. I see potential for gold to head even higher in the short term as US dollar weakness, weaker equities, and… [Read more]
With global equity markets pushing through key technical levels and international investor confidence rising, certain sub-Saharan African (SSA) currencies have caught my eye. Aside from tentative improvements in macroeconomic fundamentals, many currencies offer high interest rates, which are likely to attract capital inflows on the back of increasing global risk appetite. Perhaps more importantly, several… [Read more]
For several months now, I have run with the view for a devaluation of the Baltic and Bulgarian currencies. The core scenario has always been that such a move would likely not take place until end-2009/early 2010, but today we got a taste of just how acute the risks are of a much quicker and… [Read more]
