In case you hadn’t heard, speculation is mounting that the Vietnamese authorities might devalue the dong currency in the near future to boost the country’s exports. Frankly, I am not that surprised, since Vietnam is one of the few Asian countries that have actually increased their export dependency on the US over the past 20… [Read more]

Literally within minutes of returning from an emerging Europe investment conference where the ad nauseam theme was that the ‘economic fundamentals are essentially sound’, I learn that the National Bank of Hungary has hiked its policy rate from 8.5% to 11.5% to prop up the currency. Well, the fundamentals must be sound if a central… [Read more]

It was not too long ago that everyone was asking ‘when will China finally let the yuan go?’ [i.e. appreciate rapidly]. Indeed, back in March, when consumer price inflation was at 8.3% y-o-y, non-deliverable forwards (NDFs – a basic measure of investors’ expectations) were pricing in 13% appreciation for the yuan over the following 12… [Read more]

For someone who has not only lived but traded through previous sterling crises, most notably the one in September 1992 involving a certain Mr Lamont – one of yours truly’s most successful ever trading months – the current depreciation of the Great British pound is reminiscent of old-fashioned runs on the currency. Do you remember… [Read more]

My fears about a sharp and extended drop in the Korean won seem to be coming true (see South Korea: A Collapse Of The Won?, 21 August 2008, and Will Citizens Have To Donate Jewellery Again, 4 August 2008). The currency hit a fresh 45-month low of KRW1,090/US$ today, after punching right through very strong… [Read more]

One of the currencies that I am watching most closely right now is the Korean won. Currently trading around KRW1,050/US$, I see the risk of an extended fall to KRW1,200/US$, or even beyond. The currency has been suffering all year, due to trade deficits derived from high oil prices, and massive selling of Korean shares… [Read more]

Every now and again I look up the world’s best-performing and worst-performing currencies, and the results are always a mixed bag of exotic units, including some I’ve never heard of. Still, it’s an interesting exercise, and it’s worth looking at the results. The Best Performers… The Paraguayan guarani is currently up 19.35% against the US… [Read more]