On a nonfarm payrolls day, and with equities looking awful on a long-term basis but well oversold on a short-term basis, Risk Watchdog is looking to the bond market for medium-term clues. Yields in the US and Germany have come down significantly over recent weeks, particularly at the long end. The immediate reason for this [Read more...]

Last week Mark Schaltuper, BMI’s Head of Europe Analysis, spoke on CNBC European Closing Bell about the prospect of an internal devaluation for the least competitive eurozone economies.

Financial markets seem to have a very short memory span when it comes to aligning with macroeconomic fundamentals these days. Though the release of housing sales numbers in the US today and the short-lived euphoria of China’s loosening of its exchange rate regime at the start of the week seem to have shaken up equities [Read more...]

Japan’s new prime minister, Naoto Kan, has been given a poisoned chalice to say the least. Although GDP is growing again, the magnitude of the country’s economic challenges is gargantuan:

A fiscal deficit of around 10% of GDP
A public debt burden of 200% of GDP
An ageing [Read more...]

On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie, Chief Economist Tim Cooper and Head of Asia Analysis Stuart Allsop discuss the global strategic outlook. The market sell-off catalysed by the German ban on naked short selling has reinforced BMI’s core views including deflation over inflation, a slowdown in [Read more...]

 

 Standard Podcast [15:10m]
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Justifiably, much of the media focus on global markets this past week has been on Southern European treasury yields, which spiked further upward as investors priced in an increasing likelihood of a Greek default. To me though, the far more interesting and meaningful market move of the week, has not been on Southern European bonds, [Read more...]

On this week’s podcast, we interview Business Monitor Chief Economist Tim Cooper, who gives his analysis on the global outlook for 2010. Highlighted themes include relative performance of emerging markets versus developed economies, the inflation outlook, potential for ‘double dips’ in the US and China, asset allocation strategies and the risks to recovery.

 

 Standard Podcast [11:36m]
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