Global consumption of building materials is likely to experience a slowdown in 2011 as China’s appetite for products such as cement and steel weakens. While non-China emerging markets (EM) should see demand for building materials accelerate over the next twelve months, an increasingly uncertain outlook in mature markets (and Europe especially) combined with a cooling… [Read more]
Through the second quarter of 2010, many analysts noted a divergence between seemingly positive microeconomic data and a macroeconomic outlook which was flagging a renewed downturn in growth. A seemingly strong recovery in container shipping in particular augured well for global demand and trade. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Shipping and… [Read more]
Data from the second quarter has reinforced our long-held core outlook for a downturn in US growth in H210 and 2011. On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, BMI’s Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Justin Patrie and Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper, revisit their views on the shape of the US recovery and the… [Read more]
Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have resulted in booming gas production from shale deposits in the US. US gas reserves, once thought due to run out in 30 years, now look sufficient to meet 100 years of demand. While this is good news for the US, as it reduces gas import dependency,… [Read more]
Sugar has already been the star performer among agricultural commodities in 2009, but Risk Watchdog believes that the year-long ascent in prices could have further to run. Sugar began the year trading around USc14.00/lb region, but by September, had rallied all the way to USc26.00/lb. Since the summer, prices have edged lower as investors hesitated… [Read more]
At a recent eastern European banking sector conference, I was struck by the lack of doom and gloom among many of the fellow delegates. Yes, there was expressed concern about falling share prices and declining asset growth, but there was also an almost mantra-like quality about the way I was repeatedly told: ‘the fundamentals are… [Read more]
