Hosni Mubarak’s resignation from the Egyptian presidency on Friday marked just the beginning of Egypt’s transition to democracy. Certainly, Mubarak’s departure after 30 years in office was a tremendous victory for Egyptian ‘people power’, and it will have sent a loud message to authoritarian rulers throughout the region – and beyond – that public unrest… [Read more]

I’ve just come back from visiting Syria. The country is certainly on the tourist map these days judging by the busloads of European visitors. And economically, Syria has strong prospects: BMI is forecasting real GDP growth in the 3.5-5.0% range over the coming five years. Politically, however, I don’t see much prospect of change in… [Read more]

Today marks not only the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in China, but also that of the first partially free elections in Poland. While Poland went on to become fully democratic, China remains an anomaly in that it is the only major economy in the world that has not democratised. How long will… [Read more]

Moldova is in the midst of yet another political crisis. By this, I actually mean that the country has entered a new phase of a pre-existing crisis – a crisis that yields valuable lessons on the broader significance of political institutions to a country’s risk profile. Fortunately, this new scene in the ongoing drama has… [Read more]