The positive news surrounding the Greek debt situation has lifted the euro close to the important US$1.4500/EUR resistance level. Any break above this point would set up a possible move to the May high of US$1.4900/EUR. Interest rate differentials are clearly supporting the euro. The June 2012 euribor future has traded lower on the back… [Read more]
Although equities sold off in the wake of US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments to the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta, my colleagues and I see little evidence of any change to the Fed’s overall outlook. Bernanke reiterated the FOMC’s expectations that higher headline inflation would prove a transient phenomenon; that the labour market was… [Read more]
The confirmation of the 1.8% q-o-q annualised real GDP growth estimate for the US in Q1 2011 has put increasing focus on the US economic slowdown in H1 2011, and is forcing a downward reconsideration of the rate hike cycle in 2012. BMI has lowered its 2011 real GDP growth forecast to 2.6% from 2.9%,… [Read more]
US macroeconomic data in the past fortnight have been decidedly weak. The Philly Fed index came in much weaker than expected, while the Conference Board’s leading indicators index dropped for the first time in 10 months in April. Housing starts and initial jobless claims reports have also been poor, following a weak Q1 2011 real… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie discusses the 2011 macro-market outlook with Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper. Key issues explored include global equity and FX strategy, developed vs. emerging market performance, the inflation and interest rate outlook and key risks to the ongoing macroeconomic recovery.
On the back of the US Federal Reserve’s decision to purchase US$600bn in treasury assets through the second quarter of 2011, we assess the implications for the US economy and global financial markets. Business Monitor’s Head of Country Risk & Financial Markets Justin Patrie speaks with Global Economic Strategist Tim Cooper.
The US Imperial Reserve has declared war on Bretton Woods II. I am personally surprised at how vehement the comments of some FOMC members have been. They are fulfilling a function that the politicians cannot seem to bring themselves to perform: fighting mercantilist export states with their own medicine. Today’s import numbers (record China deficit… [Read more]
