Facing a double-whammy of a credit-fuelled housing bubble and a slowdown in Chinese economic activity, the outlook for Australia’s economy is turning increasingly precarious. While consensus continues to point towards further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Business Monitor’s Head of Asia analysis, Stuart Allsopp, believes that further interest rate hikes are unlikely. [Read more...]
In light of recent economic data from the US, Tim Cooper - Global Economic Strategist at Business Monitor International - suggests that the US recession may now be over. However, he believes that there is little to cheer about at this stage, as the recovery process will be very prolonged and slow.
Five years ago, economists and investors were fretting about ‘triple shocks’ hitting the world economy. Lest you have forgotten, these were the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates after a long period at 1.00%; a sharp slowdown in China; and rising oil prices.
Now, I see a possibility that triple shocks will once again [Read more...]
Some investors have been astonished by the run–up in raw material prices so far this year – after all, chocolate was not supposed to be high on the shopping list in a global recession! Well, the resurgence of commodities should not come as a surprise to Risk Watchdog’s faithful readership. My colleagues at BMI have [Read more...]
A special podcast on the rally in global equity markets. Terry Alexander, Tim Cooper and Cedric Chehab give an outlook on where markets are heading and what this may imply about the global fundamental picture.
Matt Mirecki from Business Monitor’s Asia desk discusses the outlook for a ‘double-dip’ economic cycle in China over the next several years.
With Q1 2009 GDP data emerging, many people are asking, ‘is this the bottom of the current recession?’
My point of view is that if Q1 2009 is not the bottom, then H1 2009 (i.e. the first half of 2009) probably is.
In this regard, there have been some encouraging signs in Asia. The pace [Read more...]
Subscribe to our free daily or weekly email newsletters or get our latest posts on your prefered RSS reader.
