The story of the past week has been the resurgence of the euro and the nascent return of risk appetite. The euro is poised to rally to resistance at US$1.3250/EUR, although we would be cautious at that stage. Interestingly, the euro has rallied as anticipation has grown surrounding ECB (European Central Bank) and multilateral assistance… [Read more]

As 2012 begins, the final verdict on 2011 growth is taking shape. BMI‘s expectation is that the US economy will sustain some of the momentum that it began to pick up late in 2011, whereas the eurozone and Chinese economies will continue to demonstrate weakness. This is borne out by purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data… [Read more]

As politicians in the US and Europe fiddle, so global markets burn. With no sign of concerted action on the part of Western institutions to bail out beleaguered peripheral eurozone states or to stimulate economic activity on both sides of the Atlantic, equity markets continue to re-price lower. Looking at the monthly charts of a… [Read more]

Risk assets plummeted on August 4 and 5, with the path forward very much dependent upon whether eurozone policymakers get serious about saving the single-currency monster they have created. On August 4, a seemingly non-chalant ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet casually brushed aside questions over whether ECB bond market purchases would be stepped up to alleviate… [Read more]

Our bearish stance towards oil continues to play out, with Brent crude getting pummelled following the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s June 23 announcement that it would release two million barrels of oil per day over the next two months from its strategic reserves. Despite a massive 9.4% decline over the last two weeks, we continue… [Read more]

Weak US economic data, renewed crisis fears in the eurozone and ample supply conditions have taken a heavy toll on the price of oil over the week June 13-17, with front-month Brent crude posting a 4.8% drop (at the time of writing) from the US$118.46/bbl level at which it started the week. While a short-term… [Read more]

Commodities took a sharp turn lower in the first week of May, beginning with a silver price collapse from US$50/oz back below US$35/oz – a move in excess of 30%, driven by higher margin requirements and a spectacular unwind of speculative longs. Seeing this, BMI’s Commodities Team focused its attention on Brent crude, upon which… [Read more]