Industrial commodities such as energy and base metals are highly correlated to risk appetite and hence equity markets. Below I highlight the monthly rolling correlation between Brent crude and the Dow Jones. The two main things to note are that first, on a monthly basis, the correlation stands at 0.9 (which implies a strong and [Read more...]

The downward revision to China’s leading economic index has weighed significantly on equity and commodity markets this morning. The conference board claimed that the index rose by only 0.3% in April, marking a significant downward revision from the 1.7% released earlier this month. This ties in well with several of Business Monitor’s views; a relatively [Read more...]

Recent developments in global markets have largely reaffirmed BMI’s pre-existing key views on the eurozone (it looks bad), deflation and inflation (it’s deflation), and the outlook for growth in the second half of 2010 (our expectation for a slowdown is looking better and better). Mark Schaltuper is joined by Tim Cooper, BMI’s Chief Economist, to [Read more...]

 

 Global Meltdown [11:42m]
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Commodity markets have traded sideways in recent weeks, despite global equity markets edging higher. This is concerning given that the two asset classes have been very well correlated in recent months. The key driver of this divergence, in our view, is a resilient US dollar. Greenback strength tends to weigh particularly heavily on commodity markets, [Read more...]

In this week’s podcast Mark Schaltuper (Head of Latin America Analysis) and Terry Alexander (Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets) discuss the return of risk appetite to global markets. Assessing recent moves and a stronger-than-expected bounce in developed markets’ equities, we explore potential opportunities and the implications for emerging markets.

 

 Standard Podcast [12:46m]
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Last week my colleagues at Business Monitor and I took off our bullish key market view of the Brazilian Bovespa index, following gains of around 13.8%. The monthly chart, which was run in the Latin America section of Business Monitor Online, highlights the strong potential of a major reversal. The accompanying chart below is the [Read more...]

As we enter the fourth quarter, Terry Alexander returns with an outlook on near-term market dynamics, and why we are not yet ready to change our long-held bullish view. Stuart Allsopp joins this podcast to give a little more fundamental insight into what is driving the rally in Gold.

 

 Standard Podcast [10:48m]
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