Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published its latest analysis of the global steel industry, and subscribers can read two key articles in our online service. Europe: We continue to see a massive divergence between the outlooks for Western and Eastern Europe’s steel sector over the coming years. Germany, France and Italy will see subdued… [Read more]
BMI sees little option for Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries but to persist with fiscal austerity measures to lower budget deficits below the 3% of GDP Maastricht limit, in spite of high and rising public discontent that has already seen a number of governments collapse. However, beyond 2013 we anticipate the dialogue in the… [Read more]
On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, we revisit Central and Eastern Europe and our core macroeconomic strategy favouring Turkey and Poland. Has the region shaken off the structural imbalances which made it a focal point of crisis risks or is the positive convergence story no longer a core defining feature for the growth outlook? BMI’s… [Read more]
‘A tale of two Europes’ seems to be the best way to describe the slew of Q2 GDP releases that came out in the second week of August. On the upside, Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, surprised most analysts by surging out of recession and posting 0.3% q-o-q growth. This helped to… [Read more]
In Business Monitor International’s second weekly podcast Mark Schaltuper speaks to Justin Patrie about the economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe. How will the region perform compared to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998?
In case you hadn’t noticed, there’s been trouble in Moldova and Georgia of late. The reason that both small ex-Soviet states have erupted onto your TV screens (and Risk Watchdog) this week is that both have seen crowds of 10,000+ angry citizens take to the streets of their respective capital cities to protest against their… [Read more]
Business Monitor’s recent downward revision of its 2009 Hungarian economic growth forecast to -6.4% well reflects my view that the systemic crisis risks I have been highlighting since Q308 have morphed into the region’s core scenario. While small economies like the Baltics and frontier markets such as Ukraine have long been forecast to contract in… [Read more]
