On this week’s Business Monitor Podcast, we revisit Central and Eastern Europe and our core macroeconomic strategy favouring Turkey and Poland. Has the region shaken off the structural imbalances which made it a focal point of crisis risks or is the positive convergence story no longer a core defining feature for the growth outlook? BMI’s… [Read more]
‘A tale of two Europes’ seems to be the best way to describe the slew of Q2 GDP releases that came out in the second week of August. On the upside, Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, surprised most analysts by surging out of recession and posting 0.3% q-o-q growth. This helped to… [Read more]
In Business Monitor International’s second weekly podcast Mark Schaltuper speaks to Justin Patrie about the economic outlook for Central and Eastern Europe. How will the region perform compared to the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998?
In case you hadn’t noticed, there’s been trouble in Moldova and Georgia of late. The reason that both small ex-Soviet states have erupted onto your TV screens (and Risk Watchdog) this week is that both have seen crowds of 10,000+ angry citizens take to the streets of their respective capital cities to protest against their… [Read more]
Business Monitor’s recent downward revision of its 2009 Hungarian economic growth forecast to -6.4% well reflects my view that the systemic crisis risks I have been highlighting since Q308 have morphed into the region’s core scenario. While small economies like the Baltics and frontier markets such as Ukraine have long been forecast to contract in… [Read more]
Of the 32 sovereign states in the emerging Europe region, 19 maintain fixed pegs or heavily managed exchange rate regimes (eight others have floating currencies and five utilise the euro). Thus far, only five of the 19 have made significant devaluations despite a clear regional trend of capital outflows, slowing growth and rapidly declining export… [Read more]
