Financial markets seem to have a very short memory span when it comes to aligning with macroeconomic fundamentals these days. Though the release of housing sales numbers in the US today and the short-lived euphoria of China’s loosening of its exchange rate regime at the start of the week seem to have shaken up equities [Read more...]

Recent developments in global markets have largely reaffirmed BMI’s pre-existing key views on the eurozone (it looks bad), deflation and inflation (it’s deflation), and the outlook for growth in the second half of 2010 (our expectation for a slowdown is looking better and better). Mark Schaltuper is joined by Tim Cooper, BMI’s Chief Economist, to [Read more...]

 

 Global Meltdown [11:42m]
Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

On May 6, a day when the Dow had at one point dropped by a record 1,000 points, when German 2-year bond yields dropped 10bps to a record low 0.46% and when the spread of the 10-year Greek over German bond yields spiked to a record high 850bps, the Governing Council of the European Central [Read more...]

We have previously highlighted on Risk Watchdog how the aftermath of the global financial crisis has exposed the structural imbalances in many developed economies, while also singling out those emerging markets which are in a fundamentally sound position to exploit the global economic recovery. Poland and Greece are certainly two prime examples at opposite ends [Read more...]

After Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) announcement that they were cutting rates by 25 basis points to 1.00% and pumping ever more money into the markets, Business Monitor International’s Global Economic Strategist, David Snowdon, appeared on CNBC to talk about the move.

At the core of the ECB’s decision was the realisation of quite how terrible [Read more...]

I am of the belief that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut its key interest rate to 1.00% by the end of 2009 from 2.00% at present.

The economic outlook for the eurozone is bleak to say the least, with Business Monitor International forecasting a 3.0% contraction in GDP in 2009. Meanwhile, inflation is in [Read more...]