One of the most underestimated risks facing the global economy is an outright recession in China. Almost nobody in the world of economics or finance believes that it is possible, let alone likely. However, is it really that unlikely? The CLSA purchasing managers index has already topped out in April 2010, so while China’s economy… [Read more]
One useful indicator of when countries will slip into recession or economic downturn is the completion dates of major skyscrapers. I’ve checked lists of major tall buildings, and almost all countries were entering a bleak period economically when prominent towers were completed or nearing completion. (The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat provides a… [Read more]
Risk watchdog’s call of a 25bps hike in Mexico’s benchmark interest rate to 8.00% on July 18, based on poor inflation data and rising price expectations, proved correct, and supports the long-held bullish stance towards the Mexican peso. The hawkish decision by Banxico helped the peso break five-year highs of MXN10.22/US$, pushing on towards my… [Read more]