There’s been quite a lot of commentary in the media of late about Turkey emerging as a global power. This seems to have been prompted by the increasingly assertive positions on a variety of issues (eg standing up to Israel over the Gaza blockade, and vetoing new UN sanctions on Iran) adopted by Prime Minister [Read more...]

Commodity markets have been edging higher in recent days as risk appetite has tentatively re-emerged. With several key markets now testing resistance, how much further can commodities bounce? With this question in mind, I would highlight the following:

In the event of a continued improvement in risk appetite over the coming days, Brent Crude and Base [Read more...]

One of my core Latin American views for some time now has been that political risk will be a key determinant of which countries out- and underperform over the medium term. In this respect, the landslide victory for Juan Manuel Santos in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday represents a strong positive [Read more...]

Japan’s new prime minister, Naoto Kan, has been given a poisoned chalice to say the least. Although GDP is growing again, the magnitude of the country’s economic challenges is gargantuan:

A fiscal deficit of around 10% of GDP
A public debt burden of 200% of GDP
An ageing [Read more...]

The decision taken by President Hugo Chávez’s administration to suspend trading in Venezuela’s black market ‘parallel’ rate marks a step closer to Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation and domestic economic ruin. To-date the government has avoided paying the cost of its rampant spending spree and erosion of productive capacity thanks to robust global oil prices, but even without [Read more...]

There is no question that China’s economy is booming, with growth spiking to 11.9% in the first quarter. The world’s largest country (by population) appears to have swept off the global recession with aplomb and many an analyst are counting on Chinese demand to drive a new global growth cycle. But is this growth sustainable [Read more...]

 

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Mexico has attracted more M&A activity in 2010 than any other EM economy with the exception of China, knocking the other regional heavyweight Brazil into third place. With the Mexican peso outperforming most other EM FX majors over the past few months, the benchmark IPC equity index continuing to push record highs, and the country’s [Read more...]