Business Monitor Online has recently published two new analyses on North East Asia. China: With the economy heading towards a ‘hard landing’, we believe it will become increasingly difficult for the central government to report strong growth figures. While the headline GDP figure is as much a political issue as an economic one, a greater… [Read more]

Myanmar (or Burma, as many still call it) has long been an economic laggard in Asia. Over the past few decades, virtually every other Asian state has boomed or emerged on investors’ radars in some way – but not Myanmar. The reason is, of course, Myanmar’s pariah status, economic isolationism, and chronic mismanagement. However, recent… [Read more]

In line with our long-held expectations of an enduring economic slowdown in India, the recently-released GDP figure showed a sharp downturn in activity – marking the sixth consecutive quarter where headline expansion has decelerated. Real GDP growth came in at 6.9% y-o-y in the second quarter of the current fiscal year (FY2011/12, April-March), down significantly… [Read more]

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s confirmation over the weekend that he plans to return to the presidency in March 2012 effectively positions him to rule Russia until 2024 by means of two consecutive six-year terms. This, of course, depends on his health holding out – at 58, he is already at the average Russian male’s… [Read more]

My concerns about a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the eurozone are rising following the release of disappointing Q2 2011 real GDP growth figures for Germany on August 16. Following hot on the heels of flat French Q2 GDP data on August 12, Germany’s economy posted just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth (seasonally adjusted) in… [Read more]

What started as a peaceful protest in Tottenham (in the London Borough of Haringey) on August 6 over the police shooting of a local resident, has since erupted into spontaneous riots across the capital and elsewhere in England (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have so far been largely unaffected). Given the rapidity with which new… [Read more]

Iran’s economy is not entirely coruscating. The government’s subsidy reform programme, international sanctions, and rising political risk all bode ill for the Islamic Republic’s macroeconomic outlook. Nonetheless, my colleagues and I believe that there may still be pockets of growth potential. Indeed, although our 2011 real GDP growth forecast stands at a paltry 1.2%, we… [Read more]