My colleagues and I continue to see further medium-term weakness for the US dollar and, in this respect, favour emerging market (EM) currencies. Our top picks in our key market views are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Singapore dollar (SGD). Our other EM favourites include the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian real (BRL) and South… [Read more]
Regular readers of Riskwatchdog, Business Monitor Online, and the weekly Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) magazine will recall that BMI has been promoting a view of developed-world equity market outperformance over their emerging markets counterparts. One way to proxy this equity view (‘DM over EM’) is by looking at the ratio of the MSCI World index… [Read more]
This week Mark Schaltuper is joined by Cedric Chehab, Head of Commodities Research at BMI, to discuss the outlook for the commodity complex. With macroeconomic headwinds in the making, how will cyclical commodities perform relative to grains and softs, and what are the risks of gold forming a bubble?
Over the past several weeks we have heard about the gloomy outlook for consumer demand in developed markets. Household deleveraging in the US and the growing debt crisis in peripheral eurozone states suggest that a return to robust demand levels will be hard to come by. In this context, we examine the outlook for the… [Read more]
Mexico has attracted more M&A activity in 2010 than any other EM economy with the exception of China, knocking the other regional heavyweight Brazil into third place. With the Mexican peso outperforming most other EM FX majors over the past few months, the benchmark IPC equity index continuing to push record highs, and the country’s… [Read more]
In this week’s Business Monitor Podcast ‘role-reversal’ Terry Alexander, Head of Country Risk and Capital Markets at Business Monitor, interviews Mark Schaltuper, Head of Latin American Markets, on the investment outlook for Brazil in 2010. With much of the ‘Great Brazil Hype’ already priced in, Mark argues that the tide may be turning for Brazilian… [Read more]
On November 12, Business Monitor International hosted a major investors’ conference on the risks, opportunities and outlook for emerging markets over the coming decade. Justin Patrie talks with senior BMI strategists Terry Alexander and Tim Cooper about some of the themes and surprises that emerged from the conference. Highlighted topics include EM outperformance, structural drivers… [Read more]
