When it comes to Sub-Saharan African markets, I favour equities as an asset class. Of course, selectivity is key: I prefer Nigerian, Ghanaian and Zambian stocks. In Nigeria’s case, I think improved investor confidence following the election will drive the market higher as participants reduce the political risk premium and focus on the attractive macroeconomic… [Read more]
BMI’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) team expects to see further gains for Qatari stocks for the following reasons: Qatar is the most politically stable country in MENA. So far no signs of unrest have been recorded since the start of 2011. Furthermore, with countries like Bahrain, Yemen and even Oman being strongly affected… [Read more]
Today in Business Monitor Online, and in this week’s Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) magazine, my colleagues and I outline our latest views of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) economies. The BRIC countries remain among our top growth picks over the long run, and we forecast real GDP expansion to average in excess of… [Read more]
Fund managers, analysts and traders often talk about the importance of being selective in stock picking. While the emergence of the risk-off/risk-on trade in recent years has perhaps lessened the appeal of this somewhat, in many markets an investor’s choice of sector or company continues to mean vastly differing returns. Since the global financial crisis,… [Read more]
I’ve long highlighted the growth potential in Zambia, which has benefitted from high prices for its key exports, an improving business environment, and strong investor sentiment, leading to a surge of FDI at the end of 2010 and into 2011. Reflecting this optimism, BMI’s Sub-Saharan Africa team officially entered a bullish key market view on… [Read more]
Regular readers of Riskwatchdog, Business Monitor Online, and the weekly Emerging Markets Monitor (EMM) magazine will recall that BMI has been promoting a view of developed-world equity market outperformance over their emerging markets counterparts. One way to proxy this equity view (‘DM over EM’) is by looking at the ratio of the MSCI World index… [Read more]
While my colleagues at Business Monitor believe developed-state equity markets will outperform EM equities in 2011, they still believe it is still too early to call the end of the EM equity rally, and I tend to agree with them. True, many Latin American bourses look expensive, and this contrasts starkly to developed states, where… [Read more]