The downward revision to China’s leading economic index has weighed significantly on equity and commodity markets this morning. The conference board claimed that the index rose by only 0.3% in April, marking a significant downward revision from the 1.7% released earlier this month. This ties in well with several of Business Monitor’s views; a relatively… [Read more]

One of my core Latin American views for some time now has been that political risk will be a key determinant of which countries out- and underperform over the medium term. In this respect, the landslide victory for Juan Manuel Santos in the second round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday represents a strong positive… [Read more]

Risk Watchdog has been observing the recent correction in commodity prices with interest. A wave of risk aversion has seen commodities dragged down by weaker equities and a stronger US dollar. Of key concern is the CRB index, which has broken below multi-month support. The CRB index has suffered several short-term corrections in recent months,… [Read more]

The timing, as ever, is a little tricky, but at some point during the second half of the year, commodity markets are going to turn lower, and when they do, the move is going to be hard and fast. At the moment, though, the bubble is still forming. Our view of the world starts with… [Read more]